AIPAC-Linked Super PACs Pour $2.9 Million Into California Special Election to Defeat Pro-Palestinian State Senator

Voters in California's Bay Area cast ballots Tuesday in a special election that has turned into a proxy fight over Israel policy, with AIPAC-affiliated super PACs spending millions to defeat a Muslim state senator who has criticized Israel's war in Gaza.

State Senator Aisha Wahab faces transit official Melissa Hernandez to fill the 14th Congressional District seat vacated by Eric Swalwell, who resigned in April amid multiple sexual assault allegations he has denied. Wahab took roughly 38 percent of the vote in June's nonpartisan primary to Hernandez's 17 percent, putting her in a commanding position heading into the runoff.

That lead has been eroded by an outside spending campaign of striking scale for a single House seat.

Millions Against One Candidate

According to Federal Election Commission records, outside groups have spent about $4.1 million on the race since mid-July, with roughly $3.7 million of it working to elect Hernandez and defeat Wahab. Just under $400,000 has gone the other way.

The United Democracy Project, AIPAC's primary super PAC, spent $1.2 million in August alone opposing Wahab and boosting Hernandez. A second outside group added another $1.7 million against her. The imbalance, nearly ten to one, is unusual even by the standards of AIPAC-backed races, which have targeted a series of progressive and Muslim American candidates in recent election cycles.

Wahab, an Afghan American and the first Muslim woman elected to the California State Senate, has pushed legislation condemning human rights abuses against both Palestinians and hostages held by Hamas, and has publicly criticized Israel's conduct in Gaza. That record appears to be the animating concern behind the AIPAC-linked spending, though the groups themselves have not detailed their rationale beyond backing Hernandez.

Hernandez's campaign has focused its own messaging on Wahab's legislative record on criminal justice.

Wahab Alleges Coordinated Interference

Wahab said last week she intends to file an FEC complaint over what she called "unprecedented" election interference on social media. "What we are seeing is a surge of suspicious accounts, bot-like activity, and very much coordinated to say the same vile, misleading narratives," she said at a news conference. Occupation Watch notes this is an allegation from Wahab's campaign, not yet an established finding, though it echoes patterns documented in other AIPAC-targeted races.

Separately, a Hernandez supporter has filed an FEC complaint against Wahab, according to reporting by Semafor, alleging she received an illegal, unreported in-kind contribution from a local Democratic Party chapter. Wahab, who holds the California Democratic Party's endorsement, has called the complaint a deliberate misrepresentation of that support.

Why the Seat Matters Beyond November

The district's boundaries were redrawn under Proposition 50, a 2025 ballot measure passed in response to Republican-led mid-decade redistricting efforts elsewhere in the country. The new map takes effect for the full congressional term starting in January; whoever wins Tuesday's special election serves out Swalwell's remaining term under the current lines, then faces the same opponent again in November for the full two-year seat.

AIPAC's aggressive spending here, despite a mixed record in this year's primaries nationally, signals the group is prepared to spend heavily again as the 2026 midterms approach, using independent expenditure vehicles that face no contribution limits under federal law.